Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Summary Report
FERRYLAND, NL — The Town of Ferryland, in collaboration with CLIMAtlantic and Municipalities Newfoundland and Labrador, has released a comprehensive Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Summary Report. Prepared by Fundamental Inc., the report outlines how rising sea levels, severe storms, and changing temperatures are projected to impact the community’s infrastructure, heritage assets, and residential areas over the coming decades.
To evaluate specific risks, the assessment breaks the town down into six distinct zones, identifying current problem areas and long-term threats:
• Zone 1 (The Pool, The Downs, Colony on Avalon): Low-elevation areas face severe risks from coastal flooding and accelerated perimeter erosion. The report notes that sea levels are projected to rise 30 to 60 cm by 2050, and up to 1.8 metres by 2100 under high-emission scenarios. This threatens access roads to the historic Ferryland Lighthouse, as well as local businesses and the Colony on Avalon archaeological site.
• Zone 2 (The Groves / Battery): Highly vulnerable to storm surges and road washouts, with sediment coastlines experiencing severe erosion. Approximately five homes in this zone are at high risk of direct flooding.
• Zone 3 (Northside Track, Bay Ridge, Sunny Hill Road): Inland flooding from heavy rainfall pooling in low-lying valley areas remains a major issue, as seen during a 100 mm downpour in January 2023.
• Zone 4 (North & West "Upper" Ferryland): While this higher-elevation area is at low risk for direct flooding, it houses vital municipal infrastructure like the Town Hall, Fire Hall, and Baltimore School. The report warns that flooding or wildfires in other zones could isolate residents from these designated emergency response centres.
• Zone 5 (Interior Ferryland): Primarily undeveloped forest and wetlands. As the climate warms, the frequency and severity of wildfire activity in this zone is expected to increase.
• Zone 6 (Freshwater Road & Quarry River): Properties below 10-metre elevation face compounding risks from river flooding, coastal storm surges, and blocked outfall pipes, threatening to cut off homes south of the Quarry River bridge.
Community-Wide Projections and Next Steps
Beyond localized flooding, the report details broader shifts hitting the Avalon Peninsula. Ferryland's average annual temperature is projected to climb by 3 to 6°C, bringing up to 59 days a year that feel above 30°C—a stark contrast to historical data. Additionally, what used to be considered a rare "1-in-100-year storm" (dumping 168 mm of rain in 24 hours) is expected to become two to four times more likely by 2050.
Town officials and adaptation partners will use this assessment to bridge immediate, short-term solutions with long-term infrastructure planning to ensure a climate-resilient future for Ferryland.
📋 View the Full Report
Want to dive deeper into the map layouts, flood simulations, and specific data tables for your neighborhood?
